The Thomas Chronicles

I’ve been accused here recently as being alarmist on the subject, but God help us if we sit back and allow a trusted ally get overrun with just some toss-off, insipid declaration of solidarity with Georgia.

Georgia isn’t just any back woods country. It was close to being a NATO member; it has an oil pipeline we more or less built; if you look at things per capita, they have more resources in Iraq that we do— and so far, all we’ve done is wax eloquent on the plight of the Georgians and wetting the Russians with harsh language.

If this is all we do, it will be open season for America’s interests. Who would ally themselves with us knowing that we waft kisses their way while doing nothing to assist them, giving them all measure of moral support short of actually helping them.

This is a travesty. And the response of our government thus far is pathetic.

Russia invades Georgia. President Bush gets sandwiched between two beach volleyball bunnies.

Do anyone see what I see? I entreat people to look at a map of the region.

Should Russia press further south, our troops in the Iraq would be bracketed by Iran to the east, Syria to the west and a hostile Russia to the north. And if the Strait of Hormuz is plugged, our route of withdrawal is also constricted.

Am I being alarmist when Russia has just overrun Georgia, blockaded Georgian ports, attacked bases and locations where our troops are located, and attempted to destroy the oil pipeline we helped to build?

Am I also being alarmist in pointing out that Russia, who gave Iran it’s current nuclear technology along with China, just might retaliate against Israel for their sale of defensive weapon systems and intelligence capabilities to Georgia?

Well, I am alarmed and appalled at casual complacency of our media, our blogs and my acquaintances on the subject.

While many of us are entertained by Olympic athletes, Georgians are dying, the Russia Bear has just made a very spectacular return to the world stage, and a chain reaction of events from this might unfold into something far more serious than an oil hiccup in the market.

I’ve made a quite a few remarks these past couple of days on this subject at Neoneocon. I thought I’d re-print them here to avoid being too redundant on the subject.

Comment 1:

To me, I think this entire situation is about the oil pipeline going from A-stan (I don’t know the spelling off the top of my head), through Georgia to Turkey. There was an agreement back in 2001 to build that pipeline with the intention of giving the West and the Far East access to this oil, that is, Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan and Australia.

This would undercut Russia’s veritable stranglehold on Europe’s energy supply, which is no small thing in the heavy winters of Europe. This pipeline would also lessen Russia’s influence in the world since they receive most of their revenue from the selling of natural resources.

The pipeline was constructed and financed primarily by two powers: The United States and Israel. There are some scattered reports of both US military advisors and Israeli military advisors present in Georgia at the start of hostilities.

Though I do not lightly dismiss allegations of “genocide” in Georgia, I find it strange to call the movement of a sovereign national power of its troops within it’s own territory an act of “aggression”. And when conflict arises, there will be civilian casualties.

When we’re talking about a region in the world that is not known for its precision bombing and over concern for civilian causalities, you will see the kinds of actions you see here. Though I may be wrong, I wouldn’t put it past Putin to send it his troops in the area, force the Georgians to respond, and, thus, giving him the perfect pretext with which to invade and destroy that pipeline.

In the end, I think it’s all about the pipeline and little about the stability of the region. Should the pipeline be successful, it would drop the price of oil like a stone. It would also flush much of the Russian economy down the drain as well… (I was wrong about this. The pipeline wouldn’t flush the Russia economy down the tubes, not in the least.)

Comment 2:

To sum up my previous comments, I think this is yet another proxy war between the United States and Russia. It is no secret that Russia and the United States seem to be on a collision course. Georgia, who was in talks to be a full member of NATO, has been and is being backed by the United States, and they have also sent their troops in Iraq to help us there. (It turns out that they are third in their commitment of troops to Iraq behind the United States and Britain. If we are talking per capita, they have poured in more resources than we have.)

From my understanding, Georgia is also in negotiations to receive some of our weapons systems. It would not surprise me one bit that Russia views all this as the United States and the West containing them as we did when they were the Soviet Union.

Given our support of Kosovo Independence in the face of vehement Russia protest, our deployment of interceptor weapons systems in Eastern Europe, and our treaties with K-stan and India and other countries, Russia announced just a couple months ago that they will respond militarily.

This, I believe, is the opening bell.

I understand that the Russian people view all Slavs as their own people, declarations of independence not withstanding. To them, the equivalent of us supporting Kosovo national independence is if they supported and armed the radical Sioux Indian tribe here in the U.S.

In fact, that is what Putin threatened if we continue to support Kosovo national independece. This was around December of last year, but Putin’s aides talked him out of that one because that would obviously mean war.

This entire situation could easily spiral out of control unto a general world war. Let us pray that won’t happen.

Comment 3:

Russia has always been an imperial, expansionist state; whether it took the form of Tsarist Russia or the Soviet Union or in it’s current incarnation of a thug-ocracy is quite beside the point.

Every nation has their own grand strategic interests. For us, it is to maintain our dominance of the oceans not only for the defense of our long coastlines, but also to ensure the free-flow of trade and commerce which is vital to our survival as a mercantile nation.

For Russia, they’re grand strategy must involve the dominance of their soft underbelly, their southern borders. There they encounter the instability of the war-like Muslims to the south where they’ve previously faced the Ottoman Empire, the Persian Empire… and that’s to mention the Mongolian conquests and the Chinese expansion as well.

Their solutions in the past, both under the Tsar and under the Soviets is to gobble up more and more real estate to the south. The Soviet strategy before Reagan slapped them down was to encircle the Mideast oil fields– thereby cutting off oil to the West at will– faint an invasion to the through the Mideast and then drive west into Europe.

This might very well be a replay of this same strategy by the Kremlin.

For the United States, with all the enemies that we have faced throughout our entire history, from the British to the Japanese, there has been an absolute consistency in who we oppose: empires.

We, Americans, are the destroyer of empires. Always have been. But let it be known right now, that we were not the aggressors here. For months now, Russia has been on full nuclear alert against us, bringing their weapons of war to the fail-safe point, and in a few instances, beyond it. If conflict comes between America and Russia, we didn’t start it.

Once again, I believe this war is ultimately about the oil pipeline that we’ve invested billions in building. If for no other reason, it is a cold, wet slap in our faces, and a warning against attacking Tehran. But then, I’ve been expecting something like this for over a year now. (see Shanghai Cooperation Organisation).

I find it no small coincidence that this invasion was exquisitely timed with the start of the Olympic Games, especially with a war-weary world in mind, and it is also no coincidence that Russia had the necessary troop strength to invade. Massing that level of troops takes time, and a considerable amount of effort, especially when we talking about the logistics necessary for a successful invasion. This, I would point out, is well beyond what is required for a “peacekeeping” force. I find their entire contention laughable. A force strong enough to invade and occupy land with all the logistic train necessary is drastically different from a force strong enough to keep the peace.

I have heard from multiple sources that the rank and file of Russia revere Stalin, of all people. This is why they love Putin. No leader throughout the entire world is beloved by their own people, except Putin whom we, in the US, regard as a former-KGB thug and an authoritarian ruler…

At this point, I think it is incumbent upon Russia to prove to us that they have no further designs on the Mideast. If they take over all of Georgia and perhaps even further south to Armenia, our troops in Iraq would be bracketed by enemies on all sides. Iran to the East, Syria to the West and an ambiguous Russia to the north.

If I were Bush or any leader in a position to make decisions on the matter, I would treat Russia as hostile until proven otherwise.

In keeping with my bleak theme of late, I now turn Iran.

For years now, the United States and our allies have been trying to talk Iran down from a cliff that they clearly want to jump from. We are talking, of course, of their nuclear weapons ambitions.

Such ambitions are serious enough considering their heavy investments in terrorist organizations, like Hamas and Hezbollah; but not content with destablizing the region through international terrorism, Iran’s president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has repeatedly called for Israel to be “wiped off the map.”

And with achieving the proverbial “bomb”, they have also achieved their means to following through on their threat.

It should be noted here that the Iranians are not Arabs. They are Persians. They are the oldest continuous civilization in the world, older than China in unbroken continuity. We underestimate them at our peril.

And the Persians don’t bluff.

Then, two days ago on June 24th it was leaked to CBS consultant Michael Oren that if the United States will not strike at Iran’s nuclear build up, Israel will.

“The Israelis have been assured by the Bush administration that the Bush administration will not allow Iran to nuclearize… Israelis are uncertain about what would be the policies of the next administration vis-à-vis Iran.”

In other words, Israel is not going to wait for the U.S. Presidential election. They will act before then unless we act first. Which means such an attack could happen some time within the next four months.

News of this leak is reverberating through the world, and many fear that we are on the edge of a precipice and World War III. Some articles like this one, even outlined how it could start.

Israel, without doubt, does not have the resources to sustain a war with Iran. If they do attack Iran, they will be destroyed by their opponents, unless the U.S. (whom is their closest ally) does not provide military relief (i.e. combat Iranian forces).

Now here is where it gets hairy (and scary).

Iran’s closest ally is another powerful country, you may have heard of it; Russia. They have together (Iran and Russia) what is called a ‘mutual cooperation agreement’ which includes a stipulation that explicitly aims to allow, encourage, and protect the Iranian atomic program.

In short, Russia has agreed to defend Iran - specifically if their nuclear ambitions are derailed by another country.

What’s more - Russia has a very similar agreement with their closest ally, and you have heard of them too, they boast ‘the million man army’; China. The agreement between Russia and China is far more blunt. They aim to work together militarily and economically in order to counter ‘western’ hegemony in both fields.

However, what this author failed to factor in is the terrible necessities of Europe, China and likelihood of the surrounding Arab nations joining the conflict against Israel and America.

Europe would have to be dragged into the fray because their lifeline depends on Russia and Middle Eastern natural resources. If those supplies fail to reach them, their lights go out; and European winters are very, very cold.

Ditto China. China is buying oil futures like there was no tomorrow because, like Europe, if the oil does not flow from the Middle East through the Strait of Hormuz, their lights also go out. The difference between China and Europe is that China is desperate in extremis. I suspect they wouldn’t need any nudging from Russia to enter the war or to fulfill their treaty commitments.

China’s very survival depends on the war’s outcome.

It is clear that Israel does not trust a possible Obama Presidency. Why should they?

Obama’s advisor has met with Hamas on numerous occasions. Obama’s church gave an open invitation to Hamas to promote their propaganda in their church bulletin.

The fact that he has left the church alleviate any concerns with regard to Obama’s relationship with this church. If anything, his farewell comments to the church indicated that he approved of what the church has done.

“This is not a decision that I come to lightly, and frankly it’s one that I made with some sadness…Trinity was where I found Jesus Christ, where we were married, where our children were baptized. We have many friends among the 8,000 congregants.”

…

“It’s clear that now that I am a candidate for president, every time something is said in the church by anyone associated with Trinity, including guest pastors, the remarks will be imputed to me, even if they totally conflict with my long-held views, statements and principles.”

It seemed he showed great reluctance to leave a church that shouts racism from the pulpit and supports terrorists.

Israel’s misgivings are not unfounded.

So, instead of sitting on their hands to see the election’s outcome, Israel is going strike, and God help us when or if they do.

… yeah, my heart bleeds for them.

Apparently, China and Russia have lodged diplomatic protestations against the US for shooting down our defunct satellite. They accused us of conducting a secret weapons test…

A Chinese state newspaper, the People’s Daily, criticised Washington for hypocrisy for rejecting a treaty to ban weapons in space proposed by Russia and China and then firing a missile at the spy satellite. Washington claims it had rejected the proposed treaty as unworkable, and said it instead favoured confidence-building efforts.

“The United States will not easily abandon its military advantage based on space technology, and it is striving to expand and fully exploit this advantage,” the newspaper commentary said.

Speaking at a press conference this morning, Liu Bianca, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, said, tersely: “The Chinese side is continuing to closely follow the US action which may influence the security of outer space and may harm other countries.”

His words were believed to have been carefully modulated to echo criticisms levelled at Beijing by the Bush Administration when China fired its own ground-based missile into an obsolete weather satellite in January 2007.

US defence officials say their case is different because Washington, unlike Beijing, informed the public and world leaders before firing their missile. They also have insisted the only concern driving the US decision to shoot down the satellite was that the 1,000-pound fuel tank could survive largely intact and release toxic gas.

Their protestations is especially rich since China have done numerous weapons tests in the past few years and Russia is still developing their Topol-M missile, which has the promise of evading even the most sophisticated anti-ballistic missile systems.

Do these countries really believe that we would lay down our arms and let them steal a march on us?

Some observers have likened our current state of affairs to 1938 before the world erupted into a conflagration unrivaled in modern times. America during the run up period to World War II was so delusional about war and peace that we came within a few votes of unilaterally disarming our military.

Hearing Obama, Hillary and the Left speak their anti-war platitudes, it was as though someone had hit the rewind button a few times.

However, there are echoes of another turbulent period in our more recent history, one not many people would like to remember: 1979.

America was under constant, forceful threat from the Soviets worldwide; we were still reeling from the oil shocks; and the economy was slowing down to stagnation. Our embassies burned throughout the world and we were told that as our best days lay far behind us, malaise and defeat lay before us.

Today, as we’re reeling from the rising price of oil, the unease of a slowing economy and our continuing war in the Mideast, a spark was set in Belgrade and for half an hour our embassy burned.

(AP Photo)

About 1,000 protesters attacked the building, throwing flares through the window while others scaled walls to rip down the US flag.

At the time there appeared to be no police protecting the embassy, but riot police later intervened firing tear gas.

The fires raged for half an hour, and when firemen finally managed to get inside the building they found a charred body.

The body has not been identified, though US officials said all embassy staff had been accounted for.

Several other embassies were also attacked by crowds. There are reports of various businesses and restaurants being attacked and flames billowing from some of the premises.

Correspondents say ambulances have been travelling across Belgrade and there are reports of up to 100 people having been injured.

From receiving overt hostility from our “allies” these past few years, this doesn’t come as too much of a surprise, but the lingering question that hovers before us is is this going to be the beginning of a trend of violence or a regional incident.

As I posted earlier this week, people forget that World War I burst out onto the globe from the Balkans, and from the genocide of the 1990’s following the fall of the Soviet Union and the break up of Yugoslavia, racial and ethnic tensions are still high there.

Serbia, supported by Russia and China, says Kosovo’s Sunday declaration violates international law.

Mr Kostunica addressed the crowds from a large stage, saying: “As long as we live, Kosovo is Serbia. Kosovo belongs to the Serbian people.”

“We’ll never give up Kosovo, never!” the crowd responded.

Kosovo map
“Is there any other nation on Earth from whom [the great powers] are demanding that they give up their identity, to give up our brothers in Kosovo?” he added.

Ultra-nationalist leader Tomislav Nikolic accused the US and EU of trying to steal Kosovo.

“We will not rest until Kosovo is again under Serbia’s control,” he said.

“Hitler could not take it away from us, and neither will today’s [Western powers].”

The fact that our current circumstances resemble 1938 and 1979 is cause enough for feeling queasy. But our troubles will not vanish if we wish hard enough, and collective hoping on hope isn’t a substitute for making hard decisions.

Show me a garden where the serpent doesn’t enter, I say to the isolationist and the Leftist. Trouble has already found its way to our shores and no amount of hope will make is disappear. And the notion that “if you leave them alone, they’ll leave you alone” has never been grounded in reality.

I think audacity is what we need. Not the audacity that moves men and women into sloth and wishful thinking, the kind that leads us to spiritual slumber and listlessness, but the audacity to act and act boldly.

… so much so that would it would make our allies gasp.

As we continue to banter back and forth this election cycle, crucial news is barely being reported about the rising tension in Eastern Europe that could spell a great deal of trouble for us and the world.

It was reported by the BBC and other news organizations that Russia is irate over our support of Kosovo Independence.

Press TV reported:

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice (L) and Russia’s FM Sergei Lavrov
Russia has warned the US that Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence from Serbia puts the pillars of international order at risk.

“We confirmed our principled position on the unacceptability of unilateral actions by Pristina declaring its independence,” said Russian foreign ministry in a statement after Foreign Minster Sergei Lavrov criticized the US on Tuesday in a phone conversation with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

“We underlined the dangerous consequences of such a step, which threatens the destruction of world order and international stability which have developed over decades,” the statement added.

Meanwhile, Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov said he believes that the declaration of Kosovo’s independence is a precedent destroying the system of international law, Russia’s news agency Itar-Tass reported Tuesday.

Ivanov underscored that the declaration of independence by the Kosovo parliament is “opening Pandora’s box” that will bring about a chain reaction in unrecognized territories.

For those unversed in the long troubled history of that region, the 20th century’s first conflagration occurred on the steps of the Balkans, and it has long been feared that instability in the region could spark yet another world war, which was why the UN and NATO was so quick to squelch the genocide in the former Yugoslavia.

It also must be remembered that Russia regards all Slavic people as their own. In a very real sense, they regard the Slavs down in the Balkans similarly to how we regard the state of California.

In what seems to be a tit-for-tat escalation of rhetoric and hostility, our move to support the Independence of Kosovo seems to be in response to Russia’s earlier threat of re-targeting their warheads at our allies in Eastern Europe.

MOSCOW, Feb. 14 (Xinhua) — Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Russia “would have to take counter measures” against a U.S.-planned missile defense system in Ukraine.

“Russia would have to take counter measures … and target those which we think will pose threat to us,” Putin said at his annual and maybe the last press conference before he steps down after a March 2 presidential election.

The marathon conference in Kremlin is attended by nearly 1,400 domestic and foreign journalists and expected to last for three hours.

Washington has pledged to base missile interceptors in Poland and a radar station in the Czech Republic as part of a project to extend the missile defense system to Europe.

Moscow strongly opposes the plan, saying it poses a threat to its security while Washington says the system is aimed at states and groups in the Middle East which are seeking weapons of mass destruction, not against Russia.

“By fanning anti-Russian sentiments in Poland, it’s easier to pass a decision on fielding missiles in that country. What should Russia do? In that event, one will have to re-target parts of our missile systems at the facilities which, as we believe, will be a threat to us,” Putin said.

Russia knows full well that the missiles we will place in Eastern Europe will be of a defensive nature. They don’t have the offensive capability to strike Russia, and the nations on Russia’s border, like Poland, don'’t have neither the wherewithal nor the desire to attack Russia. So, how are we to interpret their constant threats and protestations?

You might well think to yourself, “Now, why in would anyone want all that ice? I enjoy a cold beverage just as much as the next joe, but this is crazy.” Apparently, Russia’s president, big bad Vlad, has just annexed it into Mother Russia. Being that Russia is virtually in a perpetual freeze, the likes of which we cannot really fathom, Russia doesn’t want the North Pole for another refrigerator.

They want it for all its potential oil and minerals.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is making an astonishing bid to grab a vast chunk of the Arctic - so he can tap its vast potential oil, gas and mineral wealth.

His scientists claim an underwater ridge near the North Pole is really part of Russia’s continental shelf.

One newspaper printed a map of the “new addition”, a triangle five times the size of Britain with twice as much oil as Saudi Arabia.

The dramatic move provoked an international outcry. The U.S. and Canada expressed shock and environment campaigners said it would be a disaster.

Observers say the move is typical of Putin’s muscle-flexing as he tries to increase Russian power.

Under current international law, the countries ringing the Arctic - -Russia, Canada, the U.S., Norway, and Denmark (which owns Greenland) - are limited to a 200-mile economic zone around their coasts.

… and they accuse us of being imperialistic.