Jun 30 2008
The implications, the implications…
North Korean Disarmament
People have been golf clapping at North Korea’s actions of late.
It was report last week as a diplomatic victory for the Bush Administration. North Korea has suddenly— and seemingly without any smoking-gun reason— has decided to fold on virtually every point in the negotiations to halt their nuclear weapons program.
All this comes after over two decades of diplomacy, which were full of mendacity and trickery on their part. Their delaying tactics, including an enormous incentives package naively negotiated by the Clinton Administration, allowed them to create functioning nuclear weapons, one of which they detonated unin 2006.
But one thing no one— and I mean NO ONE, not the MSM, not bloggers, not talking heads (not that I heard of)— in the media has ask is: why now? After all of North Korea’s maneuverings and defiance for over the past 20 years, why have they chosen at this time to cave?
Allow me to set the stage for what I think the implications of this are.
I blogged last week about our proximity to war with Iran. It leaked through CBS consultant, Michael Oren, that Israel had quietly approached the United States and said in effect:
“If you won’t attack Iran, we will.”
I’m sure you don’t need me to spell out what would happen should war erupt in the Middle East between Israel and Iran, but for those unversed in how intertwined things are, allow me to elucidate.
Iran have allies in Russia and China, both of whom are heavily invested in Iran. Russia has given them countless technological transfers, including their burgeoning nuclear weapons technology, and China is heavily dependent on Iran for energy, without which they sink as a country.
Periphery players are Iranian sponsored proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, Lebanon (which is predominately controlled by Hezbollah now) and Syria, who is a close Iranian ally.
All these players, not to mention Europe, has an incredibly large stake in the outcome of this crisis, and I don’t believe any one of them are willing to sit on the sidelines as a spectator. Not when their survival depends on it.
Should conflict erupt, Israel’s only ally, the United States, will also not idly sit by and watch the Jewish race be destroyed from the face of the earth. One Holocaust is enough, as far as the United States is concerned.
How does all this fit in with North Korea’s recent cave-in to all our demands, evidenced in their very public destruction of their nuclear cooling tower?
In the fall of 2007, September in fact, Israeli warplanes destroyed a secret site in Syria which was housed nuclear material— material that originated from North Korea.
Since North Korea is up to its earlobes in international intrigue with nuclear material in the Middle East, if the United States were to attack Iran any time in the immediate future, North Korea would have to also be on the cross-off list of rogue regimes. I.E. If we’re gonna put down one nuclear-aspiring rogue regime, we’re going to have to take down the one with ready nuclear capabilities as well.
We couldn’t afford to have a nuclear hostile sitting on our flank on the Korean Peninsula that could deal us tremendous amount of harm (Japan would be in jeopardy). Optimal would be to take them both out at the same time.
I don’t think North Korea would sue for terms if they didn’t know for certain that we are proceeding to Tehran. The fact that they would fold totally and in an instant underlines just how close we are.
I think North Korea went belly up to get out of our way, fearing they would be in our sights.
I think this also means that we are on the doorsteps of open war with Iran… and possibly World War III…
