Apr 13 2007
The End of Civilization?
Back in December, Orson Scott Card wrote a rather brilliantly succinct essay about America’s current predicament (and the world’s for that matter) as relates to the fall of the Roman Empire. For those unaware about the stakes involved in our present military actions across the globe, this article, if you have the patience for it since it is rather lengthy, explains in the clearest manner the dynamics by which we can fall… and the world with us. I’ve attempted to explain this dynamic many times on this blog, but nowhere have I seen it explained so clearly.
Here is a brief excerpt:
What people overlooked was that everything depended on the Roman Army. The army wasn’t carrying the goods, it wasn’t even actively protecting the trade. The army was mostly stationed at the border, while the economy boomed in an empire so safe that none of the cities had walls. But the economic system that offered so much prosperity could only last as long as merchants could trust in the safety of the goods they transported, and as long as people could remain in place to do their work instead of having to flee barbarian invaders.
It was a robust system. Ward-Perkins points out that there were lots of crises over the years, from plague to invasions to civil wars, and none of them brought the system down, except for local crashes from which the economy soon recovered.
But it takes time and space to recover — years, and the presence of nearby robust economies that can help restore the area that was hard hit.
When you have crash after crash in close succession, and the nearby economic centers are also just as beleaguered as you, there is neither time nor space for recovery.
So when the Roman Army got caught up in civil wars (”If that legion can make their general emperor, we can make our general emperor!”) so that it was distracted and weakened, the emperors began the horribly self-destructive policy of buying off the bad guys on their borders.
It seemed like a good idea at the time, of course. You give the barbarians a lot of money and they go away. It saves lives.
Except that they run out of the money and now they know how to get more. If you crush the barbarian army in battle, they think twice before coming back. If you pay them for showing up and threatening you, and you don’t kill any of them, then coming back and threatening you again will be very popular with the barbarian footsoldiers. You’ll see them a lot more.
But money isn’t infinite — the barbarian invaders shrink the tax base as they interfere with trade, both directly (”Let’s loot this city so they’ll know we’re serious!”) and indirectly (”The barbarians are coming! Let’s leave our city and run away to someplace safe!”).
So the emperors took to giving them land. They settled the Alans here, the Ostrogoths there. Of course, the land they settled them on was already occupied, so the Germans came in as overlords — essentially, they became the new tax collectors, only they kept the taxes for themselves.
Thus the government was now giving away its tax base. Meanwhile, the Germans were lousy governors. They knew about taking taxes — but their taxation wasn’t the usual corrupt system of the Romans, it was much more direct and brutal. In many places it was indistinguishable from looting. They took so much that the people didn’t have enough left to allow them to buy quality goods from abroad. So they were removed from the empire-wide trading system.
Also, the Germans did not understand or accept the burden that had been borne by the Roman Army in the areas they now occupied. They did not maintain public safety. Newly impoverished people and other tribes of invaders harassed merchants so that through large swathes of the empire, it simply wasn’t profitable to ship things anymore. Either brigands or barbarians would seize your trade goods along the way, or there’d be nobody with money to buy your goods when they reached their destination.
The robust Roman economic system could absorb a little of this, but not a lot, and not for long.
Please read the rest here. I cannot urge you enough to read this piece.
Sometimes the significance of the Resurrection of our Lord is lost on Christians. With all the brou-ha-ha surrounding the politics of religion, it is easy to lose sight of just the basic fundamentals of our beliefs. Yes, yes, you say. Christ rose from the grave and ascended on high to the right hand of God. We all know that already. However, there is an added dimension to His Resurrection that is not discussed often, but it goes to the very core of our faith.