Dec 04 2006
Regional War? Well, Maybe…
As the situation in Iraq unravels, the course of events can jump in many different directions. The most curious of these directions is the one lately espoused by Nawaf Obaid in last week’s Washington Post Article.
He wrote:
Prince Turki al-Faisal, who said in a speech last month that “since America came into Iraq uninvited, it should not leave Iraq uninvited.” If it does, one of the first consequences will be massive Saudi intervention to stop Iranian-backed Shiite militias from butchering Iraqi Sunnis.
Over the past year, a chorus of voices has called for Saudi Arabia to protect the Sunni community in Iraq and thwart Iranian influence there. Senior Iraqi tribal and religious figures, along with the leaders of Egypt, Jordan and other Arab and Muslim countries, have petitioned the Saudi leadership to provide Iraqi Sunnis with weapons and financial support. Moreover, domestic pressure to intervene is intense. Major Saudi tribal confederations, which have extremely close historical and communal ties with their counterparts in Iraq, are demanding action. They are supported by a new generation of Saudi royals in strategic government positions who are eager to see the kingdom play a more muscular role in the region.
It is clear that this article was not written in a void or was simply the opinion of one man, despite the Saudi government’s denial of last Thursday’s article. Obaid is energy advisor to the Saudi US Ambassador, HRH Prince Turki Al Faisal, who as the title suggests is part of the Saudi royal family. It is not very plausible that someone of Obaid’s rank and position could write such an article without the tacit approval of the Saudi government; being an energy advisor to a nation whose very survival depends on energy is not insignificant.
A few months ago, a friend and I discussed the Iraqi situation and speculated on a very interesting possibility. To paraphrase the discussion, he said: “If our goal of installing liberty in the heart of the Mideast fails, does it hurt us to have a regional Shiite/ Sunni war? It could suit our purposes beautifully. We can withdraw to the Kurds in the north and to Kuwait in the south, fortify those positions, then flood the Sunni’s and Shiites with weapons.”
Shiite Iran can’t very well pour all their resources and capital into nuclear weapons if they are fighting the Sunni’s, now can they.